As the Special Majlis debate on transitional arrangements approaches, it is seminal that a detailed framework to base that debate is put together and made available. A broad framework like that which suggests options, strategies, tasks and timelines (collectively referred to as the transitional arrangements) is important to act as a basis for the debate and to steer it forward, and to make the debate a focused and substantive exercise. Otherwise the debate can be pulled in all forms of meaningless directions.
Members of the Special Majlis are broadly grouped into four segments: DRP members linked to the Government headed by Aneesa Ahmed; MDP members linked to the Opposition headed by Hassan Afeef; members linked to Peoples Association headed by Abdulla Yameen; and Independents who may ally with any one of the foregoing groupings based upon inner political beliefs and affiliation or merits of the issues involved.
MDP formula
MDP is largely identifying itself with the recently formed alliance in which MDP shares or leads a platform with three other political parties and a political movement. Except MDP and SLP, no political party or movement in that Alliance is represented in the Special Majlis.
The transitional arrangements proposal floated by the Alliance is rejected by the DRP members as a nonstarter where it relates to the replacement of the President, Cabinet and the Legislature. The rest of the features of the proposal may be open for dialogue and discussion. PA has not commented on any aspect of it as yet. It is seen to keep its distance from the Alliance and their formula. Some Independents may support it. Some may not.
The Alliance that MDP leads has more drama outside the Special Majlis than the significance it enjoys inside the Special Majlis. MDP members inside the Chamber would support the Alliance formula for transition not because it comes from the Alliance but because it comes with the approval of or perhaps the leadership of their own party.
With MDP and SLP members backing it, the Alliance formula has no weight in the Special Majlis. If PA and the Independents back the formula, then naturally the weight of the alliance formula will become worthy of recognition. However, it will not be weighty enough to succeed. Even with them all united, it would be difficult to sail a proposal through without the support of DRP. They all united fall short of the numbers required to adopt a decision. They do not command a majority.
DRP formula
DRP members are working on a framework which they feel (I am included here) shall encompass the transition arrangements. The framework is based upon a few basic premises: although the revised constitution should be adopted in one go by the Special Majlis, it cannot be implemented in one go due to the acute requirement of several laws, institutions, procedures, rules and process that shall be required to give effect to the several provisions of the constitution; elected bodies shall not be replaced by unelected performers; term and role of elected officials and bodies need to be approached with sensitivity.
The immediate focus of the DRP package will be on creating all laws, institutions and processes required to ensure that the presidential elections this year are held under the revised constitution and that they are free, fair, open and inclusive.
The rest of the areas although important must be spread out into stages of transition. They may happen in concurrence with or subsequent to the matter in prime focus. Each of those stages shall outline the tasks that need to be carried out during each of those stages; and timelines for completion of each of those tasks.
DRP Members are working on the stages, strategies, and options. That will be collectively identified as the DRP formula for the transition arrangements.
Sellability Options
If DRP members can design a framework that is acceptable to MDP as well, that is so well and good. But given the fundamental differences between the premises upon which each of the parties stands on the issue, it is next to impossible to arrive at a happy picture like that, unless each is willing to make serious concessions on their positions, which again, is highly unlikely, given the circumstances.
There is another issue as well. DRP will not speak with an alliance of parties on interim arrangements. MDP will not engage with DRP on any such discussion unless as or with the alliance. DRP thinks that in deciding a chapter of a constitution, it is baseless to make it a condition precedent to engage with an alliance that is a total stranger to the Special Majlis – especially when its lead player MDP is effectively represented in the Special Majlis and have worked with DRP members on several key issues touching the very fundamentals of the revised constitution.
If DRP members can design a framework in which issues of the PA members are addressed as well, DRP members will find it easier to sail their formula through the Special Majlis as the opponents will then be MDP members and some independents.
If the proposal prepared by DRP members is not acceptable to even PA members in addition to the MDP members, then DRP members will have to face a lot of commotion and resistance inside the Chamber from a spectrum of opponents including MDP and PA members. But with a lot of effort and strict discipline, the proposals can still be passed without the assistance of MDP, PA or independents.
However, it is so very unlikely that such a unilateral approach will be taken by DRP members in a crucial matter like the interim arrangements. They (me included) would want to exhaust all possible avenues to listen to and come to an understanding with the rest of the key groupings inside the Chamber: namely MDP and PA members.
Compromise Solutions
Ultimately, any such inter-faction co-operation or understanding or compromise will depend on the level of common ground and flexibility that can be found in terms of options, strategies, tasks, and timelines prepared by or acceptable to DRP members.
In any discussions held with the groupings formally or informally, PA will be able to engage with DRP on a more flexible platform. They have no obligation towards any alliance and represent a grouping of their own members. Their decisions would be their own decisions.
Where MDP member consider engaging with DRP members on deciding the transition arrangements, they still would have difficulty making decisions with flexibility. Despite being an effective voice by their own right inside the Chamber, they would always need to return to the alliance for confirmation or reaction. This will weaken the position of MDP as the lead opposition party inside the Chamber and in the country. Rest of the opposition united cannot be as effective as the MDP. Further MDP has nothing to gain from the rest of the component units of the alliance as MDP has its own formidable standing. However, the converse cannot be held true of the rest of the players in the alliance spectrum.
Anyway, Special Majlis resumes 13 January 2007 with debate and voting on the President’s Chapter. The debate on transitional arrangements is to follow next. Let’s see how it goes.
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