Winds of change

30 November 2007
Report: Soodh


What is going to happen? This is the question everyone is curiously asking and unable to get an answer in the current political situation. The new constitution which will separate powers of the state and usher in unprecedented political reforms is nearing completion. The constitution for the first time in our history will see multi-party elections. first will be in 2008 to elect a president. It will be followed by parliamentary elections.

The new constitution will bring revolutionary changes including an expanded People's Majlis with wider powers and responsibilities. Future Majlis would elect one member from each constituency and constituencies will be allocated on the basis of 2 seats for each atoll and Male' and one additional seat for each 5000 population. Significant in the mandate of the Majlis would be amending the constitution apart from making laws and making the government more accountable. Majlis will be composed of single-member constituencies totaling to an estimated 72 instead of the present 50 members. Majlis will not have any nominated members and all will be elected by the people.

The most important change in the new constitution will be election of the president by direct vote of the people among multi-party candidates. The next presidential election in 2008 is going to be a major turning point in our democratic life. The constitution will most likely enable incumbent President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to stand for re-election. President Gayoom, who has spearheaded the country with remarkable economic and social development with the country becoming a world famous tourist destination, completing his 6th term, has announced he will run for presidency next year as the candidate from his Dhivehi Rayithunge Party, DRP.

Opposition parties and reformists have vehemently criticised this decision and are challenging the President that his decision is against his June 2004 pledge and spirit of the reform agenda. But President Gayoom defends his position that as the architect of the reform agenda, he has a moral responsibility to implement the reforms which otherwise can be thwarted by a succeeding leader.

There is strong probability that President Gayoom will be re-elected for a 7th term. But he will face tough resistance and challenges from opponents. It is expected many candidates wound contest him and there can be a surprisingly high number of young Maldivians who will try hard to prevent President Gayoom winning a new term. More opposition candidates would be a comfort for Mr. Gayoom because it will disburse the votes of those opposing him among many giving him a good majority even in the first round.

Analysts believe President Gayoom is likely to get a 55-65% in the first round. A very large number of people still feel there is no other leader to match President Gayoom and he can be even more popular if he can implement real reform such as fully independent judiciary, civil service, election commission, auditor general, anti corruption commission, enforce laws and take strict punitive action to curb corruption. He must also show the nation a successor who can ensure a smooth transition. It will be rewarding if he can tame as many political adversaries as possible and become more responsive to their reformist ideals.

Opposition parties have called for a transitional government to be inducted and independent election commissioner appointed to ensure free and fair elections. Main opposition party, MDP has initiated a major campaign to lobby a transitional arrangement. They are campaigning to include necessary provisions in the new constitution to this effect. MDP has said that all the institutions under the current constitution will cease to be legitimate with the coming into effect of the new constitution and President Gayoom must enable a transitional government.

But President Gayoom is determined to stay on and his spokesman says President Gayoom is the constitutionally elected president and there is no legal basis for forming a transitional government. Officials have said that MDP is trying to use the new constitution as a tool to bring down the government. They have also defended their position saying that transitional governments are formed in crisis situations where a government has failed and lost control. There is no such situation in the Maldives. According to sources, government will make sure that the constitution is implemented in phases avoiding any legal impasse. Many political parties are working to agree on a common front which will be difficult in the face of the large majority the government enjoys in both Majlis. Opposition will do their best to include a provision in the new constitution to bar any one who has completed two terms as president to stand for re-election. However, the comfortable majority of President's DRP is certain to reject it.

The Government is firm on its decision to proceed with the implementation of the new constitution without a transitional government. It is possible that independent judiciary, civil service commission, election commission will be formed in the process to ensure free and fair elections. Sources say electronic voting will be introduced for the first time during the presidential elections while international observers would monitor the election. Election irregularities and allegations of vote rigging have been serious concerns of opposition parties and critics.

President Gayoom has been telling that he is committed to bring major political reform and ensure accountability and transparency in governance. He has also reiterated to pursue faster economic and social development and improve living standards. But he is facing difficult challenges such as terrorism, drug menace, housing, employment, crime, law enforcement, wealth distribution in the face of growing dissent and opposition. President's rivals and opponents say that he has ruled the country for nearly 30 years and the development he is claiming is only superficial. The wealth of the country is very unfairly distributed making a few rich people richer and the poor poorer. They say President has had enough and its time the country has a new leader.

Opposition MDP and their associates say the reforms which the president claims as his initiative have been only possible because of their courageous struggle three years ago which has been instrumental in the birth of the unprecedented reforms ushering in the country.

But President Gayoom is firm in his word that the reform agenda was started by him and many people agree with him. A large majority of people still believe that he has done a great deal of service to the nation and he should remain their leader to complete the reforms he started. They feel President Gayoom's leadership is capable of bringing more development prosperity. They do not want all the hard work and services of the president to be forgotten and the country's development and stability to be disrupted. But they do not want the president to repeat his mistakes.

In the coming days, President Gayoom may face huge challenge in his reelection if the opposition parties get together and form a united front, but this seems highly unlikely given the wide differences and rivalry between the parties and even within parties. More division among the parties will be an added advantage to the President. His popularity among the ordinary public who constitute the majority will be further boosted with the making of more harbors airports resorts free trade zones, increase of salaries for government employees, provision of text books and exam fees to students. The introduction of a health insurance to government employees and low income population would also make a big difference.

Analysts are of the view that opposition parties will face a serious setback and split badly when the President wins the election. Supporters and members of opposition parties who have made all attempts to oust the president would be so frustrated that many of them would leave any more anti government activities and leave politics forever. A good number of them will cross over to other parties, most of them joining the President's party.

President Gayoom is expected to fast track his reforms in the new term to appease a people who have aspired and waited long for meaningful reform in order to enjoy their rights of a more prosperous life in justice and equality. President will know very well he cannot afford to lose this last opportunity to renew the trust of the people that he is serving only for the people to guarantee the rights of a dignified life. He is also expected to bring young and educated people to his cabinet and important government positions. It is also likely that he will appoint a vice president. Speculation is there it will be Legal Reform Minister Mohamed Nasheed or Finance Minister Gasim Ibrahim. Others say his brother Yamin might get the important post.

Today is 30 November, the deadline set by the Special Majlis to complete the new constitution. The process is almost complete with the most difficult chapter on the President and on the implementation of the new constitution and few redrafted articles of already passed chapters remaining. Although the remaining chapters, clauses, compilation of the whole constitution, checking for any contradictory articles, editing and fine tuning would take few more days, the constitution is almost finally ready.

Most people are happy about a constitution which defines all they wanted for justice, rights, good governance and accountability. But others do not feel the same. They say a constitution need not be so detailed and it is commitment and sincerity of a government to give the people the most and best. Some political observers say that the constitution is finally compiled in a big haste making it too detailed and extremely difficult to implement. The Government will find it very difficult to make policies and important decisions because of the restrictions stipulated. They say so many difficult and extreme conditions are included due to the wrangling and deep divisions between the main political parties. "The Constitution is meant for the people, country and its future, not for President Gayoom, DRP, MDP or Adalath. It must transcend all political and ideological differences. People will regret there mistakes", a senior civil servant said. What the constitution will bring the country is to be seen in the coming months and years.