Who will succeed Maumoon?

16 September 2007
By: Soodh & Amindi


People are curious who will rule our country next. Will President Gayoom remain in office for another term? Will the Presidential election in 2008 be a multi-party contested election? One thing is certain, that is the people has given a strong mandate for the presidential system in the August 18 referendum. The landslide victory for the presidential system which was supported by President Gayoom's ruling party DRP has boosted both the president's authority and DRP's support. President Gayoom has said that the people of Maldives have spoken in favour of a presidential system and that the decision is an endorsement of the people in the government and his leadership.

While DRP is celebrating its referendum success, the main opposition party MDP has rejected the outcome of the vote saying that there were wide spread voting irregularities and the vote was highly rigged. This view is strongly shared by the PA faction lead by influential brother of President Gayoom, Abdullah Yamin who has defected the government over wide difference of policies and ideology. Yamin was an ardent supporter of the parliamentary system and his PA worked very hard with the MDP for winning the referendum for a parliamentary system. MDP and PA were naturally shocked by the referendum result in which more than 62 percent of the Maldivian people supported a presidential system. DRP was joined by Adhaalath Party, Islamic Development Party and Maldives Socialist Democratic Party in supporting a presidential system. But opposition MDP has strongly condemned the government accusing abuse of government power and influence for rallying support for presidential system apart from rigging the vote heavily. MDP has said they will take the matter very seriously with evidence of all the irregularities and vote rigging.

At the same time, DRP blames MDP and other opposition factions for intimidating and playing foul in the referendum. DRP also accuses MDP of serious violations and irregularities which they say have taken up with the Elections Commissioner.

Meanwhile the 11 member committee of the Majlis appointed to oversee the referendum is also divided in their conclusions about the vote. Some members are vehemently demanding the entire vote to be recounted in the presence of the committee while others are refusing it. Special Majlis Speaker Gasim Ibrahim has refused to accept a petition sent by over 27 members of the Majlis to hold a special meeting of the Majlis to deliberate on the alleged fraud and irregularities of the August 18 public vote. Gasim dismissed this petition as the Regulation on the referendum passed by the Special Majlis on 25 June stipulates that any complaints of irregularities in the referendum must be submitted to the Civil Court for a decision. MDP has said they have filed complaints with the concerned authorities and will take legal action on these issues while the party has issued a detailed dossier on the alleged fraud and irregularities.

In the final provisional results of the referendum announced on Thursday, presidential system supported by President Gayoom's party DRP has won a landslide victory of 93581 or 62 percent votes while parliamentary system supported by opposition MDP received 57158 or 38 percent votes. DRP claims it is a great victory for the people and their party while MDP has refused to accept the results. MDP says the present result in which nearly 60000 people voted for parliamentary system is a strong signal against President Gayoom and his “failed” regime.

DRP's euphoria of the referendum victory will not stay long as there are many difficult problems arising from the result. MDP and their associates are unlikely to stop their demands. While MDP President Dr Mohamed Munavvar has publicly declared on the day after the referendum, that the party does not accept the result and they will take appropriate measures to challenge it, party Chairman Mohamed Nasheed, Anni has repeated the same with many details of voting irregularities. He has gone to the extent of warning that MDP would not stay quiet but will start retaliatory activities. This could be a signal of another series of street demonstrations and civil disobedience. Demonstrations and civil disobedience in the MDP may once again lead to still more internal rift among party high command. But general feeling in the party is that they will not give up their demands for recounting the vote with all details and Anni has warned he and party loyalists do not fear any consequences.

The resignations of President's most trusted reform ministers Attorney General Dr. Hassan Saeed, Justice Minister Mohamed Jameel and Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed was a hard blow on the government adding fuel to the deepening political crisis. President Gayoom is however steadfast with his reform agenda and presidency and he has clearly stated that he would contest for a new term under the new constitution to become the first elected president in a multiparty race. However it is not certain the constitution can be finished in time for the presidential election. The race also looks very tough in view of growing frustrations and dissent among the opposition and those who want a new leader. It does not seem likely that the meetings of the drafting committee and Special Majlis will go smooth. They are going to be very turbulent and haunted by the bitter grievances of the opposition after the referendum.

President's half brother Abdullah Yamin's challenges are going to be equally difficult with the kind of strategic attacks they have launched on the Government. Departure of Dr Hassan, Jameel and Dr Shaheed is a big victory for them. There can be more lethal attacks. Failure of parliamentary system was a shocking blow on Yamin and PA who painstakingly campaigned for the system. Yamin who enjoys increasing popularity is equally influential and commands authority in the two Majlis. He has won the battle half way while the rift with Gasim Ibrahim is becoming more acute. Yamin's main difficulty to remain in Government was Gasim who was becoming stronger and more powerful while New Maldives ministers also had unprecedented trust and power from the President and have become a formidable challenge to the ambitious and clever politician. Now that New Maldives ministers are gone and with a seemingly weakening Gasim, the stage looks more conducive for a comeback by Yamin and his highly vocal and influential colleagues.

Many believe that MDP cannot match with the powerful lethal attacks of Yamin's PA on their potential rivals and at the same time PA dominates significantly in both Majlis. PA's support has suddenly grown in the atolls dispelling the speculation that Yamin is not close to the general public and he does not enjoy popular mass support. But even his critics say that Yamin has become very popular after he resigned from the cabinet. There is also increasing support for his arguments in the Majlis debates which many say are decisive and appealing.

In the present complex and pressing political atmosphere, there is growing fear that the country will plunge into a deep crisis unless immediate conciliatory efforts are made. Political analysts believe that Yamin factor can be a holistic solution to the crisis. They feel only Yamin has the power connections and political support that can salvage the country from an impending crisis. There seems to be only one way, and that is to reinstate Yamin in the cabinet with more authority and power. He will enforce law and order and settle the country, reconcile political parties and even initiate far reaching action for national reconciliation. If President Gayoom dispels any mistrust he has for Yamin, and appoints him as Vice President and Minister of Finance, many feel Yamin would deliver it and make a difference.

In this scenario, it is possible that President Gayoom would decide not to run for another term signaling Yamin as his potential successor. Yamin will become a strong and popular leader and with his decisive policies and action he will comfortably win the election. He would have become a friendly responsive and democratic leader transcending the barriers and challenges we are facing. If Yamin buries his past and become a leader of meaningful reform with the implementation of the fundamental principles and conditions of the pure presidential system which the Maldivian people decided on 18 August, Yamin's leadership will dawn in an era of equality, social justice and prosperity. That will also give our nation the legacy of the development and reform President Gayoom so much aspired for. If Yamin can reconcile and honor those leaders in the other parties who made a great sacrifice for democracy in our country, there will be no need for political party system which has torn our nation apart so sadly.

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